How Crowded Is Too Crowded? Validating The Competition Landscape For Your Idea Before You Build

Whenever you have a new product idea, as you keep iterating in your mind putting the main building blocks together, right around the moment where it all takes shape and you feel like “this really does make sense!”, the following question pops into your mind, right on cue:

“Hold on. Isn’t this already a thing?”

Chances are, as you check if your product idea already exists, you will find someone has already thought about it. Even though the fear of competition can be paralyzing, the good news is that it's not just about whether others have built something similar. There’s much more nuance in determining how crowded that space really is, and what that means for your chances.

We analyzed data from 90,000+ product launches to understand how saturation plays out in the real world, so we can provide early validation feedback for startups and early-stage builders. We looked at not just what exists, but what gets attention, what gets ignored, and where there might still be room to build something that hits. Turns out, some markets are screaming with noise. Others are quietly waiting for someone to show up. Let’s unpack it.

Most Product Ideas Do Not Start in a Vacuum
 

For each new product launch, we looked at how many “close cousins” it had - meaning similar ideas that had already been launched. For this post we grouped them like this:

• 0 matches: Nothing like this has launched yet.
• 1–2 matches: A couple of very similar ideas.
• 3–5 matches: A small but visible cluster.
• 6–10 matches: Quite a lot of competitors.
• 11–20 matches: Saturated terrain
• 21+ matches: You're not just in a category, you’re in a crowded room.

Here’s the kicker: Only 1 in 3 ideas have less than 3 products solving the same problem. In fact, more than half of the ideas have at least 6 (but typically more) competitors. 
There is perhaps little surprise in this. On the one hand, strong demand in some areas keeps adding fuel to newer and newer iterations of a product, and on the other, another factor is perhaps people scratching their own back in the absence of an ideal solution out there. 

6-10 matches of similar products is the ballpark where you probably need to do your research on engagement, to see whether there are products that are winning, and why.  But once you’re in that 11+ product matches zone?

You're competing with a dozen (or dozens of) other launches, and often, they’re just as ambitious as you. For example, if you want to help people or organizations schedule their calendars (or life in general) better, you may find 30 or even more competitors with a similar offering.
So what does that mean? Well, it’s actually not just about the number of matches. When doing your competitor analysis for your startup, it’s what happens next that counts most.

A Crowded Market Isn’t Always Competitive

This might sound counterintuitive, but here’s what the numbers show. Let’s zoom in on a key group: ideas that had 6–10 close matches. Not quite saturated, but clearly not original territory either. This is where many real-world products live: think note-taking tools, AI productivity apps, habit trackers, etc.

Here’s a key insight: the average number of total comments across these matched products is about 55. Sounds unsurprising at first glance. But… the median is actually just 34. Why does that matter?

If we do the math, 34 comments across 6–10 products, you’re looking at maybe 3 to 5 comments per launch. Not exactly a roaring reception. This tells us something critical: Just because a space looks crowded doesn’t mean people are paying attention.

If you’re entering a space with 6–10 similar launches, don’t assume the market is hot just because there’s activity. It’s worth digging deeper. Who’s actually getting traction? This zone is a litmus test: if you can’t beat the quiet ones on value, positioning, or clarity, your idea probably won’t rise above the noise either.

What if you're in that 11+ competitors zone? Then it’s not about being better. It’s all about being different enough to matter.

The sheer quantity of competitors and the buzz around them only tells half of the story though. Attention can be distributed in various ways in the market you are about to enter, and understanding the landscape you are about to enter can be key to building a successful product. 

One Product Often Wins Most of the Attention

When we looked at most idea groups, especially in the 6–10 product match zone, we found that engagement doesn’t spread evenly. It actually clusters around one or two products quite a bit..

The top product in a group typically gets over 60% of the total comments. So if 10 products are solving roughly the same problem and collecting, let’s say, 50 comments between them, one is probably getting 30–40 of those. The rest? Fighting over scraps.

This tells you something crucial: Engagement accumulates fast around perceived winners. Early momentum isn’t always chronological. It’s gravitational.

Whether it’s a clearer pitch, a sharper pain point, better timing, or just cleaner design, something about that top product makes it easier for people to rally around. And once they do, it becomes a self-reinforcing feedback loop. More comments → more visibility → more traction. But here’s the caveat.

Occasionally, we find groups where engagement is more evenly spread. No dominant product, just a few good ones, each pulling their weight. This pattern is rare, but powerful. It suggests:

• The user need is real
• No single solution has nailed it
• There’s still room to win big

Think of it like the early days of project management tools, before Trello or Notion took off. Dozens of apps, all getting some attention, but no one breaking away. That was a pie worth baking for.

Or look at something like time tracking: a solved space in theory, but you’ll still find multiple apps (Toggl, Clockify, Harvest, etc.) all with meaningful traction, because workflows, use cases, and buyer personas vary wildly. 

When one product wins, you need a wedge. When no one wins, you might just need polish.

So when you're scanning your idea matches and you find that the distribution of user attention  isn’t lopsided? That’s your cue to lean in.

What This Means for Early-Stage Builders In A Competitive Field
 

We tend to talk about saturated markets like they’re a death sentence, but the data paints a more nuanced picture. Competition is a sign of life, not a stop sign. Your job is to figure out if there’s space to stand out, or if you’re just the 27th calendar app in a crowded field.

• If your idea has 6–10 product matches, you’re in a competitive but not unwinnable zone. You’ll likely be joining a real market, not just an echo chamber of side projects. There are worse scenarios than this, so research and find the incumbent winner, understand why it’s working, and craft a unique angle. The market is there; your job is to stand out.
• 20+ similar products? This is perhaps a red flag. The market is likely saturated, and you’re entering a very crowded space. Breaking through here will require something disruptive, not just a good product. If you elect to push onwards anyway, be prepared to sharpen your pitch and clearly define why now.
• Engagement concentration matters. If one product dominates the comments, it has momentum. But if engagement is spread across many, there’s a rising tide. Look for signals that point to a growing interest in solutions for a problem.

In the end, success isn’t just about building something people want. It’s about building it in the right space, at the right moment, with enough clarity to cut through the noise. Want to know how crowded a market your idea sits in before you build it? That’s exactly why we created ShouldIBuild.it, a tool built on real launch data from tens of thousands of products, designed to help you map your idea landscape and figure out your next step, fast.